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FIFA World Cup 2026 · Group stage
Australia
AUS
Australia
AUS
Australia
AU · HOME
GF
0
·
GA
0
·
xG
0.0
0.0
21%
@4.44 · Elo 26%
-5pp
Turkey
TUR
Turkey
TUR
Turkey
TR · AWAY
GF
0
·
GA
0
·
xG
0.0
0.0
52%
Elo 56%
-4pp
· @1.80
0
–
0
Pre-Match
09
d
11
h
04
m
03
s
Draw
26%
@3.57
+8pp
FIFA World Cup 2026 · Group stage
Australia
AUS
Australia
21%
AU · HOME
@4.44 · Elo 26%
-5pp
GF
0
·
GA
0
·
xG
0.0
0.0
0
–
0
Pre-Match
09
d
11
h
04
m
03
s
Draw
26%
@3.57
+8pp
Turkey
TUR
Turkey
52%
TR · AWAY
@1.80 · Elo 56%
-4pp
GF
0
·
GA
0
·
xG
0.0
0.0
24h vol
$0
BC Place, · Sun 14 Jun, 06:00 CEST
Elo vs market
aligned
Agent scoring · per LLM
3 agents · consensus vs market
LLM consensus
mean of 3
AU 34%
D 0%
TR 66%
Market consensus
Polymarket + books
AU 21%
D 26%
TR 52%
LLMs vs market
AU
+13.0pp
TR
+14.0pp
⚠ Top divergences from LLM consensus
|Δ| sum across 3 outcomes
Gemini 3.5 Pro
leans ARS
Δ0.0
Claude Opus 4.7
leans ARS
Δ0.0
Grok 5
leans ARS
Δ0.0
Agent
Top call
PSG
D
ARS
Δcon
Conf
Gemini 3.5 Pro
BACK Australia
Match winner
+33.4pp
34%
0%
66%
0.0
95
Claude Opus 4.7
BACK Australia
Match winner
+13.0pp
34%
0%
66%
0.0
95
Grok 5
BACK Australia
Match winner
+13.0pp
34%
0%
66%
0.0
95
Open
Polymarket
· Win the World Cup
Trade →
Will Australia win the 2026 World Cup?
0%
0%
0%
100%
Yes
0¢
No
100¢
$396K
Vol
all-time
News ticker
6
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·
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·
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4d
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